New zealand vs Australia

Non-events. You have to hate them. And nowhere in world sport is there a bigger non-event than the one being played in Wellington on Saturday.
The Springboks, with their title-grabbing victory in Hamilton last week, ensured that the only people who have a vested interest in the final Tri-Nations fixture are optimistic Aussies hoping to see their stuttering, yet talented side put one over the old enemy, and disgruntled Blacks fans (yes the thousands of you in Cape Town are included in this bunch) who will be hoping their side doesn’t slip even further into the abyss.
With nothing to play for, you’d expect it to be an open game with the ball seeing plenty of air. However, both sides’ desperation to finish their campaigns with a victory could result in a far more conservative pattern, although this is unlikely, particularly for the Blacks, who’ve shown a distinct lack of appreciation for playing the percentages throughout the tournament.
Given both sides’ penchant for a ball-in-hand attack, there’ll be an emphasis on setting an attacking platform through set-phase, tackle-point and breakdown dominance.
The Blacks’ scrum failed to trouble the Springboks in Hamilton in the manner the Wallabies had the previous week in Brisbane, and they’ll be second best against a unit who have made exponential improvements in this facet of play over the last two years.
There’s also no reason to believe that the Blacks will remedy their lineout woes in a week, despite drafting Tom Donnelly into their second row in favour of the Matfield-scarred Isaac Ross. Blacks hooker Andrew Hore will be relieved that he isn’t faced with the prospect of having to negotiate the Springbok lineout maestro, but in the Aussie lock duo of James Horwill and Mark Chisholm he and his jumpers still face formidable opponents, who will ensure that their lineout struggles continue.
Robbed of decent set-phase ball I can’t see the Blacks winning this one, even in their backyard. Unless, of course, the Wallabies kick poorly, feeding a dangerous back division with opportunities to attack from broken field.
As mentioned earlier, tackle-point and breakdown dominance will be crucial to the outcome. Blacks skipper Richie McCaw will always be a force in the latter aspect, but he will be up against two of the game’s finest breakdown exponents in George Smith and David Pocock. Their potency will be amplified by their team-mates’ ability to impose themselves on defence, something the Wallabies were adept at in their victory over the Springboks a fortnight ago and which the Blacks failed to do in Hamilton.
A quick recycle is crucial to the success on an expansive game plan and even the mercurial flyhalf Dan Carter cannot craft scoring opportunities when his service is being stifled. This holds true for both sides, but the Wallabies have a 10-12 axis in Matt Giteau and Berrick Barnes to revert to a territorial game if they need to, where the Blacks will rely almost entirely on Carter in this regard.
If the Wallabies can avoid being suckered into trying to replicate the expansive game the Blacks are expected to play, and mimic the Springboks’ measured but highly effective approach (bearing in mind that they will have to make certain adjustments given that they don’t have the quality of player to copy it completely) there’s no reason they won’t win against the most limited All Blacks side in a decade.
Prediction: Wallabies by 7
New Zealand - 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Isaia Toeava, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c),6 Adam Thomson, 5 Tom Donnelly,4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Rodney So’oialo, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Hosea Gear.
Wallabies – 15 James O’Connor, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 George Smith (c), 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 James Horwill, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Subs: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Pek Cowan, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Wycliff Palu, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Quade Cooper, 22 Peter Hynes.